The West risks stumbling into a nuclear conflict with China or Russia because backdoor channels between rival powers have collapsed, the national security adviser has warned.
Sir Stephen Lovegrove said the world’s superpowers understood each other better during the Cold War and that there had since been a breakdown in communications that meant there was a greater risk of accidental escalation.
President Biden is expected to hold a phone call with President Xi today in an attempt to ease tensions over Taiwan, the self-governing island China claims as its own. The pair have not spoken since March although Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, met Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, this month.
In Washington yesterday Lovegrove praised the White House’s decision to re-engage with China. But he also highlighted the risks of technological advances that could upset the delicate balance between competing superpowers.
“We have clear concerns about China’s nuclear modernisation programme that will increase both the number and types of nuclear weapon systems in its arsenal,” Lovegrove said.
Russia, China and the US are developing hypersonic missiles that travel at more than five times the speed of sound and can manoeuvre in the air, enabling them to avoid air defence systems. The Pentagon announced this month that it had successfully tested two hypersonic missile systems.
There is growing concern in western capitals that China is pulling ahead in the race to develop the next generation of weaponry. Last year it tested a hypersonic missile that circumnavigated the globe before hitting a target.
Russia became the first country to use hypersonic systems in war when Moscow deployed its “Kinzhal” missiles in Ukraine. The Kremlin claims the missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
This month Dmitri Medvedev, the former president of Russia, said that western support for Ukraine had brought the world to its most dangerous moment since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. He said it was “absurd” and “poses a threat to the existence of humanity” to punish Russia for its actions in Ukraine given the size of its nuclear arsenal.
Russian state TV has broadcast claims that President Putin could wipe out Britain with a nuclear “tsunami” in retaliation for supporting Ukraine.
Lovegrove was appointed to Whitehall’s most senior defence role last year. In a speech at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank, he said the breakdown of communication with China and Russia created a higher risk of “rapid escalation to strategic conflict”. He said: “The Cold War’s two monolithic blocks of the USSR and Nato — though not without alarming bumps — were able to reach a shared understanding of doctrine that is today absent,” he said. “Doctrine is opaque in Moscow and Beijing, let alone Pyongyang or Tehran.”
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Lovegrove continued: “During the Cold War, we benefited from a series of negotiations and dialogues that improved our understanding of Soviet doctrine and capabilities, and vice versa. This gave us both a higher level of confidence that we would not miscalculate our way into nuclear war. Today, we do not have the same foundations with others who may threaten us in the future — particularly with China. Here the UK strongly supports President Biden’s proposed talks with China as an important step.”
Lovegrove said that during the past 20 years there had been a proliferation in the number of countries with high-tech weapons. He said that along with the rise of hypersonic missiles, developments in cyber, space technology and genetic warfare had all made the world less safe.
Security sources said that the increased availability and wider range of weaponry meant that the world was on a “dangerous trajectory”. One said: “There’s real alarm about how fast these weapons are spreading around, new international systems need to be put into place to get a grip on this.”
Despite the increased risks, Lovegrove said much of the existing architecture remains “vital”, such as the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. However, he added: “The reality, however, is that current structures alone will not deliver what we need a modern arms control system to achieve.”
