The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown the increasing risk of war between nuclear-armed superpowers. China’s claim over Taiwan is a future flashpoint with a nuclear dimension.
China has made very clear that it intends to force the democratic state of Taiwan back into its totalitarian regime. It does not yet have the military capability to do this, but when it does, America will have a difficult choice: either to renege on its security assurances to Taiwan or to risk nuclear war with China by fighting a battle in the Taiwan Strait. Imagine the consequences of a 100,000-tonne nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier being sunk with the loss of 5,000 sailors.
The least bad option to avoid these two dreadful scenarios is for Taiwan to resurrect its nuclear weapon development programme, which the US persuaded it to abandon in the 1980s. A minimum credible deterrent would almost certainly dissuade China from invading and avoid such a crisis. Signatories of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty would be horrified — but they are not the ones facing an existential threat from China.
Rear Admiral Philip Mathias (retired), director of nuclear policy 2005 to 2008
Think big and ban them
In his article “The world is awash with nuclear weapons. We should be more fearful” (Comment, last week), Matthew Syed apologises for being “gloomy” — but he’s simply realistic. While there are nuclear weapons, there is a high risk that they will be used, as the 22 known near misses show.
Where Syed really is too gloomy is in suggesting the best that can be done is a reduction in the number of these weapons. This approach still carries a high risk of consigning millions to a hideous death.
The majority of the world’s nations back a global ban on nuclear weapons. A year ago a UN treaty to that effect came into force; 60 states have ratified or acceded to it.
Our technology has advanced faster than the political mechanisms to control it. There’s no area where this is more evident than nuclear weapons. For the sake of humanity, we must think big to ensure they catch up.
Baroness Bennett, House of Lords, London SW1
Damage limitation
Syed is absolutely correct that we have been lucky so far, and we must prioritise risk reduction through arms control. Nevertheless, I reflect that if Russia were not a nuclear power, we would almost certainly be at war with it by now. Our fear of nuclear war is damping down our willingness to extend the present war, and that may not be an entirely bad thing. The Second World War was pretty horrifying long before Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Dr Toby Lipman, Easthaven, Angus
West must disengage
Oliver Shah says: “We can rely less on China — if we want to pay the price” (News, last week). But for the western world the price of bowing to Chinese expansionism will be far higher. We should address this now, or it may be too late.
Why not just admit that globalisation went too far even before Covid and Russia’s assault on Ukraine? Western businesses have made themselves dependent on Russian energy and Chinese production, thereby putting themselves at the mercy of the two major threats to western democracies, all to earn that extra dollar. More self-sufficiency will have consequences for our standard of living, but the alternative is dependence on two totalitarian states with expansionism in their eyes.
Stellan Brandt, Melbourne, Australia
Economic meltdown
Unplugging our economy from China is the only logical option, and the sooner, the better. Otherwise, that economy will not survive when the inevitable invasion of Taiwan happens.
Geoff Hellyer, Tonbridge
A role for Xi
Misha Glenny is right to say, “Talking to the Russians is the only way out of this hell” (News, March 13). However, talks need to involve Xi Jinping, who more than anybody has the power to convince his friend to negotiate a way out without unacceptable loss of face.
According to my country’s minister for defence, Russia and China are now an “unholy alliance”. It is to be hoped that the latter’s belligerence in the Indo-Pacific region — including trade sanctions against Australia — is not a prelude to an invasion of Taiwan. In this regard, Xi might take note of the West’s strong response to the invasion of Ukraine. He should also recognise that a more stable world would enable China to continue its growing economic power.
John Kempler, Rose Bay, New South Wales, Australia
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