President Macron has revealed cracks in the western alliance by ruling out a nuclear response if Putin attacked Ukraine with atomic weapons.
Discussion of specific nuclear deterrence scenarios or policy is usually taboo in the US, Britain, France and Nato because it “reveals your hand” to Russia, Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said.
Speaking on French television, Macron said he wanted to avoid “global war” and that France would not use its independent nuclear deterrent against Russia if President Putin ordered atomic missile strikes on Ukraine or “the region”.
He told the France 2 public broadcaster: “Our doctrine rests on the fundamental interests of the nation. They are defined clearly and wouldn’t be directly affected at all if, for example, there were a ballistic nuclear attack in Ukraine, in the region.”
As the first leader of a nuclear power to define policy on Russian nuclear threats against Ukraine, Macron’s comments are widely seen as unhelpful, particularly his use of “region” to describe Ukrainian territory, which is largely bordered by Nato allies Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.
“The declaration harms the security of Europe, emboldens, and even encourages, Russia to aggression, and nullifies the significance of having France as an ally”, Jacek Saryusz- Wolski, a Polish MEP, said.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs chief, emphasised that an atomic attack on Ukraine would not provoke nuclear war but would trigger an overwhelming conventional miltary response.
“Putin is saying he is not bluffing. Well, he cannot afford bluffing, and it has to be clear that the people supporting Ukraine and the European Union and the member states, and the United States and Nato are not bluffing either,” Borrell said. “Any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer, not a nuclear answer but such a powerful answer from the military side that the Russian army will be annihilated.”
Officials in the Nato military alliance, which held a meeting of defence ministers in its nuclear planning group yesterday, do not discuss specific deterrence doctrine or scenarios that are top secret. “This is not how serious players should conduct themselves. It is not helpful. We do not tell Russia what we will or will not do. It is called strategic ambiguity. We tell Russia there will be severe consequences,” one senior offical said.
France is not on the Nato committee and, like Britain, has an independent nuclear deterrent, but Macron’s comments will be seen as potentially revealing western nuclear policy.
Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, has said publicly several times this month that the alliance has conveyed clearly to Russia that it would face severe consequences if it used nuclear weapons, including low-yield nuclear weapons, in Ukraine.
Putin has threatened to use “all weapon systems available” to defend Russian territory, which he claims includes four regions of Ukraine illegally annexed last month.
Russia has 2,000 “low-yield” nuclear weapons, which range from 1 to 10 kilotons of high explosive in strength, compared with “high-yield” missile warheads ranging from 100 to 1,000 kilotons. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima by the United States in 1945 had a yield of 15 kilotons. Even a 1-kiloton blast would destroy all buildings and kill everyone in a half-mile radius.
Next week Nato will carry out its annual “Steadfast Noon” nuclear exercise, held this year in Belgium. The manoeuvres that are so secret that until last year their existence was classified.
In the context of the Nato exercise, to be followed by Russian nuclear manoeuvres over a fortnight, Macron warned against the dangers of nuclear rhetoric, with comments mainly aimed at Putin but also at western partners.
“We have a doctrine that is clear,” the French president said. “The dissuasion is working. But then the less we talk about it, the less we brandish the threat, the more credible we are. Too many people are talking about it.”
Ben Wallace, Britain’s defence secretary, said the Nato nuclear exercise, which involves fighter jets training with dummy US tactical B61-12 nuclear weapons, was routine.
“It’s all about readiness, about making sure we are ready for anything. That is the job of this alliance — to make sure that the 30 partners together are ready for what is thrown at us,” Wallace said.
According to leaks in the Belgian press, the Nato exercises involving 14 countries and up to 60 fighter jets from ten allies will take place at Belgium’s Kleine Brogel air force base next week.
Pilots will train to drop nuclear weapons, and ground crew will practise transporting bombs from underground bunkers and attaching them to aircraft.
Although never officially confirmed, Nato’s tactical nuclear weapons are also stored at Volkel in the Netherlands, Aviano and Ghedi in Italy— where the exercise took place last year — and Büchel in Germany.
The region around Kyiv has been struck by Iranian-made explosive “kamikaze” drones. Residents in Ukraine’s capital woke to air raid sirens for the fourth day in a row. Russian missiles also hit more than 40 towns and cities.
Marat Khusnullin, deputy prime minister of Russia, said on state television residents would be helped to leave the Moscow-occupied Kherson region after Kremlin-backed officials there asked for aid following a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Emmanuel Macron may have been publicly expressing an opinion many leaders hold in private, but his remarks on France’s reluctance to respond if President Putin deploys nuclear weapons in Ukraine surprised allies (Larisa Brown writes).
The French president has often appeared more willing than other leaders to compromise with Russia, and has continued to hold telephone conversations with Putin. He was accused by Nato officials of showing Europe’s hand even as the Kremlin engages in a game of nuclear brinkmanship.
Even as Nato’s planning group were expected to meet amid internal discussion over whether the alliance should call off atomic deterrence exercises scheduled for next week, Macron had seemingly undermined the “firm predictable behaviour” that Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary-general, has called for in recent days.
Macron’s allies will point to the fact that he was merely stating the obvious, however. Nato’s Article 5 principle commits allies to a response if a member state is attacked. But Ukraine is yet to be welcomed into the alliance, though President Zelensky has said Kyiv is already a “de facto” member.
General Sir Richard Barrons, the former head of the UK forces command, said Macron should have kept quiet. “He is not saying anything new or revelatory, but saying anything on the subject that might be misconstrued as accepting such use could occur — and therefore diluting inhibitions against so doing — is not helpful.”
James Rogers, director of research at the Council on Geostrategy, said that France had always had a different approach from its allies. “France has always maintained that its nuclear weapons are for its own purposes — unlike the UK and US which have always publicly stated that their deterrents cover the whole of Nato,” he said.
Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the defence select committee, suggested a conventional response — for example dropping bombs and missiles from F-35 jets on Russian military headquarters and vehicles in Ukraine — could be just as devastating as a nuclear one.
