Nato must not be cowed by President Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons and should send troops to establish a forward supply base for military and humanitarian supplies in Ukraine, the former top US commander in Europe told The Times.
As more heavy weapons are sent to the region, General Philip Breedlove, Supreme Allied Commander Europe from 2013 to 2016, said it was time to stand up to Putin by putting boots on the ground in Ukraine. “We must respect the fact that Putin might use nukes but we shouldn’t be paralysed by it,” he said.
“Would his use of tactical nukes in Ukraine be a tipping point for Nato and the EU and the world? We have nukes and I’m not being flippant. We have to take action to deter him. Otherwise Putin’s deterrence is working extremely well for him. Multiple world leaders have said we’re not going to fight the Russians in Ukraine,” he said.
“So they have all been deterred by Putin. But if we reward him [by doing nothing] then that will lead to more bad behaviour. It will take a policy decision to say: enough is enough,” Breedlove added. “But the West didn’t get to that point after Bucha [the town outside Kyiv where hundreds of civilians were reportedly slaughtered] and not after Mariupol,” he said.
Breedlove, 66, one of several high-ranking retired commanders advising the Biden administration on Ukraine, asked: “So what could the West do? Well, right now there are no Russian troops west of the Dnieper River. So why don’t we put Nato troops into western Ukraine to carry out humanitarian missions and to set up a forward arms supply base?”
It came as Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, and Lloyd Austin, the defence secretary, were expected in Kyiv for talks with President Zelensky. The meeting on Sunday was the highest-profile visit by US officials since the begining of the war two months ago. “You can’t come to us empty-handed today,” Zelensky said before the meeting, “and we are expecting not just presents or some kind of cakes, we are expecting specific things and specific weapons”.
Breedlove said: “The Ukrainians have been screaming for humanitarian assistance. Why don’t we go in and help? But most importantly, what is the one thing Putin wants? He wants a land bridge to Moldova, and for that he needs to take Odesa. We did nothing to stop the fall of Mariupol. What has the West done to make sure Odesa doesn’t fall? Again, nothing.”
He said that the port city, which was hit by missile strikes over the weekend, was vital for Ukraine and for its economy. “If Odesa falls, Ukraine will become a land-locked country with no access to the Black Sea. The impact on Ukraine’s GDP would be huge. It would be ruinous for the economy.
“The West is saying it is providing everything Ukraine needs to defend against the Russians. But the people of Mariupol had to fight without Stingers [anti-aircraft missiles]. That was a failure by the West.”
He added: “Now we need to make sure that the Ukrainians win the battle for Odesa. The arms sent didn’t get to Mariupol because the West was too slow and by the time they arrived, the Russians were already encircling Mariupol.
“Odesa isn’t encircled. So we must make sure the arms get to Odesa such as coastal defence cruise missiles and the [Slovakia-supplied] S-300 air defence system. Also long-range artillery. And we need to make sure they have enough food stockpiled. Is the world prepared to defend Odesa and to prevent what happened to Mariupol?”
What might provoke Putin into using tactical nuclear weapons? “I don’t think Putin will make the kind of decision to move to a new level because of the arms supplies the West is providing,” Breedlove said.
“But I believe his threshold may be reached if one of two events happen: first, he has taken a sound whipping and he’s trying to hide that fact from his internal audience. Most of the Russian people don’t know about it. The intelligencia know what’s going on but Putin controls the information flow. So what if he can no longer control the message in Russia? For example, the first batch of conscripts are due back next month but many of them will not be coming back. How is Putin going to deal with that?
“Second, if he suffers another major defeat, this time in the east in the Donbas region, that could be another tipping point. I think the sinking of the Moskva [Russia’s flagship cruiser in the Black Sea] nearly got him to that point. I don’t think Putin’s threshold moment will be about the amount or type of arms the West supplies. It’s more about what the effects are on the battlefield.”
“I don’t believe either side can win,” the general added. “The Ukrainians can whip them again but they can’t expel the Russians from Ukraine. Some people believe that the Russians have the stamina to go on for a long time but I disagree. The Russians have a lot more equipment to bring to the battlefield but they don’t have the soldiers to man them.”
What Ukraine needs
Missiles
Much of its success has been founded on anti-tank weapons donated by the West, including British Nlaws, Javelins and AT-4s, which have all proven deadly against ageing Soviet armour. Kyiv says more supplies are required.
Ukraine has also received anti-aircraft missiles such as Starstreak, a British hand-held launcher that can shoot jets and helicopters, and Stinger, an American surface-to-air system with infrared homing. Slovakia has sent S-300 anti-aircraft missile batteries, a request from President Zelensky, under an agreement where the US will replace their depleted stock. To protect Ukraine from the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Britain has sent Harpoon missiles.
Tanks and armoured vehicles
Expected to play a decisive role on the plains of Donbas, Kyiv has not hid its frustration that few have been sent. Ukrainian forces are trained on Soviet-era weapons, and the Czech Republic became the first country to send tanks this month with a shipment of T-72s.
Poland is set to do the same under a “backfill” agreement with Britain, where Challenger 2s are temporarily deployed to eastern Europe. Germany is set to agree another backfill agreement with Slovenia to send T-42 tanks. Berlin has also sent 56 PbV-501 vehicles. From Britain, Kyiv will receive 120 armoured vehicles and a handful of Stormer anti-aircraft vehicles. From the US, Kyiv is getting 100 American armoured Humvee vehicles and 200 M113 US armoured personnel carriers.
Artillery
Heavy artillery will be critical in the next phase. France is set to give Caesar 155mm self-propelled howitzers to complement American 155mm cannon and Slovakian 155mm Zuzana howitzers. Boris Johnson has promised artillery — although it is not clear what Britain will send. Germany has refused Kyiv’s demand for Panzerhaubitze 2000 155mm self-propelled howitzers.
Drones and aircraft
Ukraine will require reconnaissance drones to direct artillery fire in Donbas. Loitering munitions can also be used to hit targets. The US is donating “Kamikaze” Switchblade drones, a loitering munition. AeroVironment, the American firm that makes Switchblades, is also giving 100 Quantix Recon UAVs. Zelensky wants Soviet-era MiG-29 fighters. Nato has refused, fearing it would draw the West into conflict with Russia. Instead, spare parts have been sent to repair Ukraine’s fleet.
